Scenarios of nanotechnology development and usage in Turkeyby Fatih Karaca, M. Atilla Öner

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Scenarios of nanotechnology developme

Fatih Karaca a,⁎, M. Atilla Öner b eyla D s, 3475

Article history:

Received 29 October 2013

Received in revised form 9 April 2014

Accepted 12 April 2014

Available online xxxx

Keywords:

Nanotechnology

Scenarios

Expectations

Turkey 1. Introduction acknowledged and not valued by the public [5], although their

Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2013) xxx–xxx

TFS-17990; No of Pages 14

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological ForecastEmerging technologies [3] of the 21st century are important for both public [4] and private sectors. They are often not effects on the economic context are multiple, including opening up of new markets, increase or decrease of competition in an industry, location of production of goods/services, demand for factors of production such as labor and capital, implications for skills demand, consequences for wages and employment, and impact on the environment etc. [6].

Nanotechnology stands as a prominent example for these ☆ Gidley [1] defines 4 types of futures in a study investigating the effect of the

Steiner education system on the views and visions of the future of the youth. In this study she uses the term “probable future” that is a product of trend analysis and surveys and later Eckersley [2] employs the term “expected” instead of the “probable and possible” to define the type of the future t depending on the views shared by themajority. In this pap term “expected scenarios” to emphasize the fact that sce assessments of survey questions by individuals revealing the development and usage of nanotechnology in Turkey ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 532 508 26 37.

E-mail addresses: fkaraca@ssu.edu.tr (F. Karaca), maoner@yeditepe.edu.tr (M.A. Öner). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.04.004 0040-1625/© 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: F. Karaca, M.A. Ön

Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.10The analysis of future development of an emerging technology, e.g. nanotechnology, by experts has been criticized in the literature for the over-optimism they possess. A more balanced approach would be to take choices of the ordinary people and the effects of the environmental factors into consideration during this process. Prior work on willingness-to-buy for nanotechnology products has indicated that attitudes and beliefs of individualsmay have a significant influence on the social acceptance process.

This study surveys the expectations of Turkish individuals and uses that information as an input to understand the possible developments in the use of products based on nanotechnology. Five different patterns emerging from the responses have been converted to 5 distinct scenarios suggesting various possible development paths for nanotechnology in Turkey.

A final scenario has also been formulated using the information on expected context of 2029. It foresees a future where nanotechnology and its applications will be significantly appreciated by the society and is expected to be used in almost all areas of the economy and industry. The survey participants, although reserving their doubts on the potential threats of nanotechnology on human health, will not be hesitant to use it. They also believe that, with increased public investment in the coming years, the utilization of this emerging technology will further be enhanced by 2029.

This study indicates that values of context and focus variables in 2009 and 2029 and foreseen changes from 2009 to 2029 may help companies in the resolution of three types of uncertainty concerning drivers of change, uncertainty about their evolution (“state” uncertainty), uncertainty about their impact on the competitive position of the firm (“effect” uncertainty), and uncertainty about the response viable to the firm (“response” uncertainty). © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c ta Süleyman Şah University, Department of International Business and Finance, L b Yeditepe University, Department of Business Administration, 26 August Campuhat is about to happen er,wewill be using the narios are based on the their expectations on . er, Scenarios of nanotec 16/j.techfore.2014.04.00nt and usage in Turkey☆ umankaya Campus, Orhanlı, Tuzla, Istanbul, Turkey 5 Ataşehir, Istanbul, Turkey ing & Social Changeemerging technologies in this century [7]. Some economists hope that it would prove to be magic by 2025 [8]. The numbers from different sources seem to support this hope and may also give us a clue about the vitality of the concept. The National

Science Foundation (NSF) of the USA has projected that the world market of nanotechnological products will reach 1 trillion USD in 2015. In a study completed in 2004, Lux Research hnology development and usage in Turkey, Technol. Forecast. 4 2 F. Karaca, M.A. Öner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2013) xxx–xxxhas estimated a world market of 2.6 trillion USD for the year 2014 [9], whereas Tegart [10] reported an anticipated market size expected to reach 1 trillion USD by 2015. These statistics however can be problematic for the fact that in some studies even if the nanotechnology use of the product is limited and is just an input, researchers take the whole value of end product as the nanotechnological product, and in others they only consider the nanotechnology-used part [11].

It is hard to assess the real economic potential of nanotechnology [11,12], yet, it has already been applied in various fields, such as computer electronics, communication, energy production, medicine and food industry [13], probably requiring novel regulatory methodologies [14]. Economic and social promises and opportunities of nanotechnologies are very important for human beings considering the impact they would have on the public life in terms of quality and wealth creation.

On the other hand, nanotechnology possesses serious risks and dangers besides potentially huge benefits that are mentioned here. The nanomaterials that are incorporated into consumer products are claimed to be relatively inactive.